What Rahul needs to learn from Sachin (published in a national daily in March 2013 post the Rahul Gandhi speech at CII)

Beyond the incidents of losing lines and misplacing paper, Rahul Gandhi’s much talked about appearance at CII went about peacefully. But did create a lot of noise later in media and featured extensively in the “common man’s daily talks”. Personally, I don’t think Rahul Gandhi was clueless as some sections of people are tending to claim, surely we have seen far worse from far senior politicians in the recent past.

To be fair to him, one cannot really expect him or anyone to come out with all the solutions for India’s 65 year old problems in a 25 minute speech. The truth is that the event itself has been overemphasized, almost as it was the next five-year program of the country. Or it was seen as an Indian version of US Presidential debates, with Rahul versus Modi contest looming large.

But given the criticism, Rahul Gandhi must be left wondering what more could he have done. He talked a well rehearsed speech, quoted from leaders around the world, walked around the stage to answer questions, and even did a small performance to show how India and China are different. He talked sensible things, gaps of education, infrastructure and delivery, he showed good knowledge of governance at the deepest levels and showed understanding of the tide of the dreams of the youth. At the school of politics, he would have got 9 out of 10 for this performance as an MP.

But things are different with Rahul, for he is never seen as an MP or a Congress leader, but almost as the Prime Minister of India – and the expectations were swollen likewise.

With the people I have met, almost everyone believes that of all 1.2 billion Indians, Rahul Gandhi does stand a better chance to be a PM someday than anyone else. Even the leaders from BJP and the staunchest anti-Nehru/Gandhi family leaders silently agree to it. So the burden of this expectation is unavoidable – which often leads to difficult demands, which dissolve the lines between a leader and a super hero.

And then India is a country which believes deeply in super-heroism, you like it or not, but it is just too deeply cultural. In treta-yug Lord Ram is believed to have single-handedly destroyed the all evils, in Dwapar-yug Krishna did the same. We celebrate how Gandhiji alone without an act of violence won us the independence and how one Dalit called Ambedkar, within his own lifetime, achieved a social justice which Americans took generations to achieve. Even Rahul Gandhi himself talked about how his grandmother won India the important 1971 war.

This is a country of heroes, which inherently would believe in superhuman efforts and often extraordinary results by its leaders in whom they trust their lives and welfare. Yes, it is welcome to empower the billion people, and it would be wonderful if Rahul Gandhi could be that hero who achieves this act – that is where we look forward to a plan in 2014 election manifesto of his party. I am sure Rahul can use his influence to push his great ideas of empowerment into Congress election plan– much like Akhilesh pushed his ideas of technology with his Samajwadi Party.  

Visionary leaders know how to go work beyond their limitations to achieve the impossible. They know how to tackle the weight of practicalities. One of the leaders Rahul mentioned was the American President John F Kennedy. Kennedy is a perfect example for Rahul and all leaders of the nation in his ability to inspire the impossible. In 1961, with America pitched deeply into a cold war with the Soviets, the most important race was the race to space. In 1959 Soviets beat Americans by putting the first human satellite, Sputnik into orbit. In 1961, they beat Americans again, by making a living man walk in space. Situation looked bad for the Americans as most of their counter missions were ending up in embarrassing failures. Kennedy then did the impossible. He stepped up and declared his plan to not only match but beat the Soviets in space race. Kennedy set a target that within the decade of 1960s Americans will put a man onto moon, and will be the first ones to do so. What followed is well known history. In July 1969, the first human, Neil Armstrong stepped on moon, the first human to do so. Till date, no other country has been able to send a man to moon. That is how leaders defy boundaries of practical and achieve the impossible. Rahul Gandhi is perfectly positioned to become such a visionary leader, an opportunity he cannot afford to miss.

The problem which Rahul Gandhi faces is that his every word, every fumble, every step is weighed, commented and compared. It is slightly unfair to him, but then with great admiration he also inherits extra ordinary expectations, everytime he steps out. It reminds me of the sight of Sachin Tendulkar coming into bat. Every single time, he would be barraged by deafening applause, chants and expectations of a record breaking performance. Yet, he would play his own game, do his super human efforts with the bat and sometimes, even as a bowler – and after two decades of a career he has records which none can question. Rahul Gandhi will have to learn from now his fellow MP this lesson in taking exceptional responsibility and delivering extraordinary results under breaking stress of expectations.

By

Srijan Pal Singh

Article (published in a national daily, April 2013)

Because even gold does not glitter forever!

“Sone ki Lanka” was the term used in Ramayana to describe the wealth of Ravana’s empire. Then came the phrase “Sone ki Chidiya” to describe the opulence of pre-British India. History and folktales, both describe how the richest of temples and kings were filled in the yellow metal and how “Paras Stone” had the ability to turn everything to gold. Gold was a measure of prosperity of a kingdom, might of an individual and devotion in religion.

The over reliance on gold as a tool of saving is a unique to India because of a variety of reasons. First, gold was easy to store and hide, and in a country which was overrun by numerous invaders it was the safest way to protect wealth. Second, because gold gained universal acceptance across India due to the endorsement of the religious institutions, its value remained high no matter where it was used. Third, because gold is chemically inert, does not contaminate, burn or lose shine it was a secured against the forces of nature.

Today, India accounts for about one-third of the worldwide gold demand and it forms the second biggest import item in the national economy, more than iron, steel and coal. As shown in the table, India consumers five more gold than USA, while being less than one-tenth of the size in terms of economy. Even compared to China, India consumers nearly 37% more of gold, and surprisingly, India is not amongst the top five gold producers.

Consumer’s Gold Demand vis-à-vis GDP
	Jewellery (in tonnes)	Total bar and coin invest (in tonnes)	Total	Economy Size (GDP) in thousand crore rupees
India	650	409	1059	8800
China	509	261	770	32450
Russia	70		70	8250
USA	119	94	213	81400
UK	25		25	12100
World	2018	1409	3427

In strict economic sense, this hunger for investing in Gold is a not a health trend for the nation. Gold is a static asset, a metal which does not grow, does not generate jobs, does not make an industrial input and does not create an income. And although it does provide cushions against economic shocks, it also serves as an excellent way to park black money. Moreover, in the recent past, it is clear that even gold prices can fluctuate sharply and are dependent on international markets.

 As nations advance, their technologies grow which leads to the opportunity to create more and more enterprises, which will deliver growth and profits to the economy. This is ideally where investments and savings should be directed for a better future instead of using gold which only adds to imports.

India needs a three pronged strategy to correct the gold rush it has witnessed over decades now. First, we need to expand the financial institutions like banks to reach out to rural and last mile people who can find it as a better proposition to save their money. Second, gold-backed financing needs to be aggressively encouraged to ensure that the gold in the safes of homes comes out and generate meaningful investment opportunities.  Third, import of gold for domestic consumption needs regulation. India is an economy which is already reeling under pressure from its oil import bills, and the added import of gold is only adding to the fiscal deficits.

As investors one must realize that the value of gold is derived from a variety of factors and it is as volatile as any other investment. Due to pressure on international oil market post Iraq war and Iran crisis and worldwide financial turbulence, in the past 3-4 years, gold gained value as an alternative investment. But whenever industry pick up momentum, the price of gold is bound to correct itself.

So will the current price of gold go up again? Yes, probably given the turbulence in Korea is escalating it may do so within the month. But, it is bound to see fluctuations again too when things ease out. Gold will always see the cycles of price because even gold does not glitter forever.   

By

Srijan Pal Singh